The Naples real estate market is returning to its traditional seasonal cycle, according to a longtime local agent, as the predictable January–April sales surge reemerges after three years of pandemic-driven, year-round demand. This shift is causing confusion among agents and market watchers who became accustomed to constant activity during the COVID period, but who may not recall the pronounced on-off rhythm that defined Naples real estate for decades.

“It was always like a light switch turned on, and the phone starts ringing,” says Mike Shoaff, a top 1% agent with RE/MAX Hallmark Realty who has worked the Naples market since 2015. Shoaff describes the pre-pandemic market as one where sales activity would suddenly spike in winter, then drop off sharply by summer.

Shoaff says the pandemic years of 2021–2023 created an unusual period of steady, year-round demand that disrupted Naples’ typical seasonal pattern. Now, as demand normalizes, he argues the market is reverting to its historical behavior. This has important implications for interpreting current inventory levels, sales velocity, and overall market health.

The Traditional Seasonal Pattern

Before the pandemic, Naples’ real estate market was shaped by a concentrated window of activity. “It’s hard to judge here in Naples, because we’ve always been very seasonal with seasonal buyers,” Shoaff explains. “The majority of all sales happen in the months between January and, let’s say, April. That’s our season, and that’s when the majority of all homes are sold in Naples.”

Naples’ appeal as a winter destination for buyers from the Northeast and Midwest drives this compressed sales period. Shoaff notes that these buyers typically visit during winter, make purchase decisions, and then return home, causing most transactions to cluster in just a few months. For agents, this means the bulk of annual income is earned in a short span.

During summer, activity slows to a crawl. “Things just come to a halt in the summer,” Shoaff says, describing the pre-pandemic pattern. This pronounced seasonality was the norm in Naples for decades.

The COVID Anomaly Period

The pandemic years disrupted this cycle. “I think everybody has forgotten, because of COVID, during the COVID times of 2021, 2022, 2023 it was just busy all the time,” Shoaff says. “It didn’t have any slowdown during summer.”

Shoaff attributes this anomaly to several factors: remote work allowed buyers to relocate year-round, urban residents sought refuge from dense cities, and intense competition for limited inventory sped up decision-making. With these drivers fading, Naples is returning to its traditional seasonal cycle.

This reversion is causing confusion, especially for agents who entered the business during the pandemic or lack long-term experience in Naples. Shoaff cautions that current summer inventory levels and slower transaction rates, while they may appear alarming, are typical for this time of year and do not signal deeper market weakness.

“I believe that we’re going to see an uptick in sales come the end of this month, first of next month,” Shoaff says. He expects the usual surge in activity as the winter season begins, consistent with historical patterns.

Market Interpretation Implications

Shoaff argues that understanding Naples’ seasonal rhythm is essential for accurate market analysis. Inventory levels that seem high in the summer are consistent with the market’s normal cycle and often clear quickly once peak season arrives.

He also warns that year-over-year comparisons can be misleading if they use pandemic-era data as a baseline. What may look like a downturn compared to 2022 or 2023 could simply be a return to pre-pandemic norms, not a sign of market deterioration.

For sellers, Shoaff advises that listing a property in summer usually means a longer time on the market, but this is standard for Naples and not a reason to panic or slash prices. Buyers, on the other hand, may find better deals and less competition in summer, but should expect more competition and higher prices once the season begins.

Shoaff says his own business is structured around these seasonal realities. With 90% of his business coming from referrals, Shoaff focuses on building long-term relationships and managing client expectations about the market’s timing rather than chasing year-round sales.

Buyer Demographics and Seasonal Patterns

The seasonal nature of Naples’ market is reinforced by its buyer base. “Everybody who looks at these listings are coming from the northeast, larger cities,” Shoaff says, citing New York City, Long Island, Philadelphia, Boston, Connecticut, and Chicago as the primary sources of buyers.

Shoaff notes that these buyers often sell homes in strong northern markets, where properties move quickly, and then purchase in Naples during their winter visits. This pattern supports the January–April sales spike and summer slowdown, regardless of broader economic trends.

As long as Naples remains a destination for these out-of-state buyers—primarily retirees and second-home seekers—the market’s pronounced seasonality is likely to continue.

Broader Market Context

Shoaff’s seasonal perspective also affects how he views other challenges in the Naples market, such as the standoff between buyers and sellers over pricing and the impact of rising condo assessments. He suggests that these issues may appear more acute in the summer, when transaction volume is low, but may ease as the winter season brings more buyers into the market.

He also sees Naples as a long-term appreciation market. “How I always have seen Naples, is it’s like the S&P 500 where you have your ups and your downs, but it’s always trending upwards,” Shoaff says. “You may have your little dips and valleys, but in these little five-year cycles, it always ends up higher than what it was five years ago.”

Shoaff recommends a long-term buy-and-hold approach for Naples buyers. “If you can hold it five years plus, you’re doing good,” he says, emphasizing that short-term fluctuations are less important than multi-year value growth.

Possible Solutions

Shoaff’s strategy at RE/MAX Hallmark Realty focuses on setting realistic expectations about Naples’ seasonal cycle and long-term value, rather than trying to time short-term market swings. “I always handled everything from start to finish, from the time of contract to closing, never handing it off to a transactional agent,” Shoaff says, highlighting his hands-on approach and commitment to educating clients on market timing.

His referral-based business model—”90% of business is referral”—suggests that his seasonal insights and long-term perspective resonate with clients who return or refer others.

Whether other agents and brokerages in Naples will adopt similar approaches, or if institutional players will develop better seasonal adjustment models, may determine how accurately the market is interpreted as post-pandemic normalization continues. For now, Shoaff’s experience points to a clear message: Naples is not in decline, but simply returning to the seasonality that defined it for decades before the pandemic.